Executive Summary The Federal Reserve lowered the target range by 25 bps to 4.00–4.25% while continuing QT. Inflation is easing but still sticky in services (CPI YoY 2.9%, Core CPI 3.1% — Aug 2025, BLS). The labor market is cooling (unemployment ~4.3%), and credit standards remain tight (Fed SLOOS shows renewed tightening in 2025:Q2). Long…

Introduction The U.S. economy is entering a delicate phase. Inflation has cooled from last year’s highs, but progress is stalling where it matters most—housing and services. At the same time, the labor market is losing steam, with unemployment at a four-year high. The Federal Reserve, having cut rates earlier this year, is now standing still,…